Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Who here gets the virus first?

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by Sota, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. oldnotdead

    oldnotdead Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2019
    Posts:
    11,306
    Likes Received:
    17,827
    Dislikes Received:
    28
    Hahaha....why bother even considering that
    We've been letting South Africa in this countries southern border for months!
     
  2. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    you shut your mouth!
    The border is closed. Misster Secretary said so zherself.
     
    cantexian and oldnotdead like this.
  3. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    My sister ain't feeling so good. Day 6(? that I know of) today and she's got a 101 fever and lost her taste and smell today. Physically exhausted and her body aches. Bright side is her cough/congestion was significantly better.

    She may go get the monoclonal tomorrow AM if she's not feeling better. She's eligible due to her BMI.

    My understanding is her hubby is almost asymptomatic. Sumbitch is like 100# overweight.
     
  4. 0317

    0317 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2020
    Posts:
    4,469
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    Dislikes Received:
    25
    Location:
    Midwest
    this new variant is supposedly more bark and less bite than others ...

    South Africa Medical Chief Says New COVID Mutation Has Only Produced “Very Mild Cases”
    Expresses surprise at international al



    Despite a flurry of international panic over the new COVID mutation, South Africa’s medical chief says the issue is a “storm in a teacup,” noting that the country has only recorded “very mild cases” of the new strain.

    Well that’s not gonna be very good for pandemic panic clickbait is it?

    Please share this video!
     
  5. 0317

    0317 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2020
    Posts:
    4,469
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    Dislikes Received:
    25
    Location:
    Midwest
    Are We Overreacting to Omicron?

    With natural exposure immunity and early outpatient treatment and when combined with no reports of increased lethality, the WHO’s reaction of generating panic toward “Omicron” is causing needless fear and panic. So too with the Biden administration’s newly imposed travel restrictions, which will achieve nothing and will once again disrupt trade and violate human rights.

    The WHO has said that the Omicron variant can spread more quickly than other variants. Likely true. The virus is behaving just like how viruses behave. They are mutable and mutate and via Muller’s ratchet, we expect this to be milder and milder mutations and not more lethal ones given the pathogen seeks to infect the host and not arrive at an evolutionary dead-end.

    The virus will mutate downward so that it can use the host (us) to propagate itself via our cellular metabolic machinery. The Delta has shown us this: it is very infectious and mostly non-lethal. Especially for children and healthy people. So is the WHO panicking the globe needlessly? Is this Covid-19 February 2020 once again?

    The problem with South Africa as is with Australia and New Zealand and even island nations like Trinidad is that it has low natural immunity to SAR-Cov-2. This is because, as we witnessed over the last year and more, if you lock down your society too long and too hard, you deny the nation and population from inching closer to population-level herd immunity. And you have no economy or society from which to reemerge. You devastate your society for a pathogen that is largely harmless to the vast majority of people, especially children.


    Moreover, governments asked us for two weeks to flatten the curve to help prepare hospitals so that they can tend to surges and other non-Covid illnesses. We as societies gave our governments 2 weeks, not 21 months. They failed to tend to the non-Covid illnesses and we locked down the healthy and well (children and young and middle aged healthy persons) while failing to properly protect the vulnerable and high-risk persons such as the elderly. We failed and it was like killing fields in our nursing homes.

    This failure rests on public health messaging and government. Additionally, what did our governments in the US, Canada, UK, Australia etc. do with the tax money for the hospitals and PPE etc.? Hospitals must be prepared by now. Governments have failed! Not the people. The Task Forces have failed, not the people.

    These nations thought that they could stay locked down and wait for a vaccine. This is a reasonable view though I was against lockdowns as they would and did cause crushing harms on especially poor persons and children. The problem is there was an opportunity cost because the vaccine we were waiting on was sub-optimally developed without the proper safety testing or assessment of effectiveness.

    We have data that the Pfizer vaccine loses 40% of antibodies per month, meaning in 3 months post-shot, you have low effective vaccinal immunity. We see it clearly playing out now whereby you got to tamp down spread with the draconian lockdowns, but you did it at the cost of natural immunity. That is the opportunity cost. So we spent on getting the vaccine and it cost us natural immunity and thus herd immunity.


    For example, the vaccine has failed to stop infection and spread against Delta. We have research findings by Singanayagam et al. (fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts), by Chau et al. (viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases in vaccinated nurses were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with prior strains early 2020), and by Riemersma et al. (no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated individuals to those who have vaccine “breakthrough” infections and if vaccinated individuals become infected with the delta variant, they may be sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to others) that reveal the vaccines have very suboptimal efficacy.

    This situation of the vaccinated being infectious and transmitting the virus has also emerged in seminal nosocomial outbreak papers by Chau et al. (HCWs in Vietnam), the Finland hospital outbreak (spread among HCWs and patients), and the Israel hospital outbreak (spread among HCWs and patients). These studies have also revealed that the PPE and masking were essentially ineffective within the healthcare setting. All of the HCWs were double-vaccinated yet there was extensive spread to themselves and their patients.

    In addition, Nordström et al. (vaccine effectiveness of Pfizer against infection waned progressively from 92% day 15-30 to 47% day 121-180, and from day 211 and onwards no effectiveness), Suthar et al. (a substantial waning of antibody responses and T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, at 6 months following the second immunization), Yahi et al. (with Delta variant, neutralizing antibodies have a decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating antibodies display a strikingly increased affinity), Juthani et al. (higher numbers of patients with severe or critical illness in those who received the Pfizer vaccine), Gazit et al. (SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13-fold increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant, and substantially elevated risk of symptomatic Covid and hospitalization), and Acharya et al. (no significant difference in cycle threshold values between vaccinated and unvaccinated, asymptomatic and symptomatic groups infected with Delta) collectively reveal the poor efficacy and even negative efficacy of the Covid vaccines. Levine-Tiefenbrun et al. reports that the viral load reduction effectiveness declines with time after vaccination, “significantly decreasing at 3 months after vaccination and effectively vanishing after about 6 months.”

    As an example, the Swedish study (retrospective with 842,974 pairs (N=1,684,958) is particularly alarming for it shows that while the vaccine provides temporary protection against infection, the efficacy declines below zero and then to negative efficacy territory at approximately 7 months, underscoring that the vaccinated are highly susceptible to infection and eventually become highly infected (more so than the unvaccinated). A further example emerges from Ireland whereby reporting suggests that the Waterford city district has the State’s highest rate of Covid-19 infections, while the county also boasts the highest rate of vaccination in the Republic (99.7% vaccinated). Reports are that the U.S. Covid-19 deaths for 2021 surpassed the deaths from 2020, leading some to state that “more people have died from COVID-19 in 2021, with most adults vaccinated and nearly all seniors), than in 2020 when nobody was vaccinated.”


    Thus these nations that locked down and stayed that way are in a quandary for they do not know what to do now. If you open you will get surges in infection. Where is the money that was to go to hospital preparation? Did governments embezzle and steal and misappropriate the money for the hospitals remain still not prepared?
     
  6. 0317

    0317 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2020
    Posts:
    4,469
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    Dislikes Received:
    25
    Location:
    Midwest
    cont.

    We have a lot of natural immunity in the US, e.g. near 65-70% of the population. The open states (those that did not lock down too long and too hard and opened quickly) will likely do very well with this Omicron or any new variant. This also is the power of natural immunity.

    And we need not forget the potency of the overlooked ‘innate’ immunity with the innate antibodies and innate natural killer cellular compartment. This innate response is particularly potent in children (our first line of defense against pathogens) and is what has spared children from Covid and how children typically stave off pathogens, especially young children still laying down immunological memory.

    Moreover, there is no reporting of increased virulence/lethality of this new Omicron variant. As yet this will remain the case based on Delta and prior variants. There are no guarantees but we operate based on risk and all things point to the same for this new variant.


    Just because there is a wave in SA does not mean that there will be waves in the US or Israel or other places with greater natural immunity. This was the prize of letting people enjoy day-to-day living. The nations that have ended lockdowns are likely to move past this new variant scare, and be fine. This is more of an overreaction by the WHO and governments and much ado about nothing.

    https://conservativeplaylist.com/2021/11/26/are-we-overreacting-to-omicron/
     
  7. virginiashadow

    virginiashadow Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    Posts:
    28,671
    Likes Received:
    54,963
    Dislikes Received:
    35
    If the booster shots arent delivered to the expectations of these drug companies, what are the projected financial losses?
     
    0317 likes this.
  8. Germ

    Germ Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Posts:
    16,121
    Likes Received:
    3,584
    Dislikes Received:
    133
    Location:
    "The" Michigan
    Wow 20 people you know, man I cannot argue with that staticall argument.

    Sorry westfinget your experience in working in the ICI and being a doctor is not trumped by the 20 or so people Big D knows


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. Fix

    Fix Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Posts:
    9,174
    Likes Received:
    12,542
    Dislikes Received:
    36
    Location:
    Western NY
    Quiet down troll you shall make no Allies here

    In Venatione Veritas
     
    0317, oldnotdead and GregH like this.
  10. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    Firstly, you were the one who claimed that 'Alll (sic) the folks I know say “ you don’t want this crap”.

    I was simply pointing out the vast majority of C19 patients experience asymptomatic or cold-like symptoms and experience little to no lasting effects. That's a statistical and scientific fact. I just used my personal experiences/observations as a representative example.

    I am speaking to my experience with a random population sample of ages, sex, and ethnicities whereas our resident ICU doctor is speaking on his experiences with people who, you know- need Intensive Care.

    I live and work in one of the largest metro areas in the world. I work directly with about 400 people, and we encounter the general public population at a higher rate than most anything outside hospitality industry or hospital-based health care.

    To this day, now a 2 full years after C19 jumped over the Pacific; not only do I not personally know anyone who has died 'of COVID 19'; I don't personally know anyone who knows anyone who died 'of COVID 19'.

    Let's say I personally know appx 250 people, and those people all know appx 250 people....you're talking about an exponent of what, 62.5k? I'd say I have a pretty good personal point of observation.

    ...or maybe those I know and by extension, the people they know are just blessedly lucky to be known by yours truly.

    *************

    Talked to my BiL this AM, he's 100% fine and my sister is apparently not as bad as my mom's worries. Said she feels like she's got a bad cold and is just taking OTCs. Refuses to get monoclonal because she doesn't think she's that bad and it is in limited supply.

    BTW, even though she was symptomatic and had a known exposure, she took 2 home tests with negative results. I think Day 4 of symptoms she went to CVS and got tested there, next day results came back positive. Just putting this out there as a PSA, these home tests are not accurate at all. I have lost count of the number of false negatives I have heard/read about here and out in the real world.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
  11. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    Yes.


    (I could have saved you a lot of copy/pasting.)
     
  12. axtell343

    axtell343 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2014
    Posts:
    3,039
    Likes Received:
    4,991
    Dislikes Received:
    11
    Location:
    Northeast PA
    I hope Godzilla is safe.


    Sent from my iPhone using Bowhunting.com Forums
     
  13. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    only quoting myself to add an alibi- I forgot; one of my college buddy's friends' mother allegedly died 'from' C19 about a month ago. I am not sure if he personally knew her, though. But he was one of those perpetuating one of the mopey 'on her deathbead, just before she was intubated she wished she had gotten the vaccine' diatribes. 'She died from stupid internet disinformation' he claimed...

    I asked him what her personal status was- 66yoa and based on her Facebook page was a smoker and obese. (So she died WITH, not from C19.) I asked if she had taken monoclonal antibodies? No. Any ivermectin, HCQ, or any of the other 'kitchen sink' treatments. Nope.

    I said yes, she did likely die from internet disinformation. Any one of those treatments could very well have saved her life, and are only not in widespread usage because of Big Pharma and Big Tech misinformation.

    (He hasn't spoken with me since.)
     
  14. oldnotdead

    oldnotdead Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2019
    Posts:
    11,306
    Likes Received:
    17,827
    Dislikes Received:
    28
    Please do not feed him
     
  15. 0317

    0317 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2020
    Posts:
    4,469
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    Dislikes Received:
    25
    Location:
    Midwest
    yea, but it is easy to do, and there is always the one uninformed hypochondriac out there (Germ), but he has me on ignore anyways being the wuss lib he is ..
     
  16. dnoodles

    dnoodles Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Posts:
    13,505
    Likes Received:
    20,899
    Dislikes Received:
    23
    Location:
    People's Republic of IL
    Screenshot_20211127-154606_Signal~2.jpg

    Memes are apparently faster than the speed of sound.
     
    oldnotdead likes this.
  17. axtell343

    axtell343 Grizzled Veteran

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2014
    Posts:
    3,039
    Likes Received:
    4,991
    Dislikes Received:
    11
    Location:
    Northeast PA
    oldnotdead and dnoodles like this.
  18. Germ

    Germ Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Posts:
    16,121
    Likes Received:
    3,584
    Dislikes Received:
    133
    Location:
    "The" Michigan
    All you talkers head to an ICU and ask those folks and see what they say.

    Go work in one for a weekend where the numbers are high, talk is cheap.
     
    axtell343 likes this.
  19. Germ

    Germ Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Posts:
    16,121
    Likes Received:
    3,584
    Dislikes Received:
    133
    Location:
    "The" Michigan
    That is incorrect, I was referring to ICU doctors and emergency room docs I know and have talked to.
     
  20. Germ

    Germ Legendary Woodsman

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2008
    Posts:
    16,121
    Likes Received:
    3,584
    Dislikes Received:
    133
    Location:
    "The" Michigan
    upload_2021-11-27_17-41-5.png

    I realize Tucker is your boy, but just making up what I say to fit your narrative is predictable I guess.

    I am falling the advice of those fighting on the frontlines for me, you follow whoever you want.
     

Share This Page