I'm with you guys at 0-10%, I've got good ground and good genetics but for a deer to break 180" is a rare bird. There are a handful taken in Nebraska every year so there is a chance but it's a long shot. If I'm lucky enough to be able to hunt for 25-30 more years I suppose it's not completely out of the question.
Given that on the properties I hunt in MD I know for a fact to hold 2 bucks over 180" that both are visible in daylight hours and the fact that I am branching out in hunting other states and properties that hold huge bucks I put my chances in the 51% range. I figure if I keep hunting these properties I will eventually get a crack and I'm coming closer each year. I limit it to 51% because getting a crack and making good on it are two different stories. The chances of me doing it in my home state and local stomping ground are next to nothing.
This is a very accurate post in my opinion. A 180" deer is no smarter than a 130" deer its just that a 180" is a freak of genetics and nature. They are oh so rare. This is what makes them so sought after... they simply exist is extremely small numbers. I too have never even come close to picking up a shed antler of any deer remotely close to this mark. Have no trailcam pics either. A lease will not give you a 180 anymore than public ground will... even 90% of all the outfitters in the U.S. can't claim a legitimate 180" on one of their farms. I simply cannot fathom how anyone of us could have more than a 10% chance... barring they are not on the heels of one now. In 15 years of hunting I've seen 2 bucks that would come close to the 170" mark respectively... although I know where a 200"+ whitetail lives it makes little difference because I was denied permission to hunt him. He may as well live in Florida. A 180 is simply a rare animal anywhere. I'll give myself a 10% chance on the off-shoot that one day I'll find where one lives and gain permission to hunt him.
Does it count if it's in the front of my canoe as opposed to the back of a truck Odds aren't good anywhere. Unless you are behind a fence...
Less than a percent. Spent my whole life in the woods and never truly seen one that I feel went over 140". And the number over 120" I can count on both hands and feet. The biggest buck that I know someone personally that has killed on ground I have access to went 157". I'd be thrilled to take one in my life that went 140+.
I would just like to add that later that season one of the Chicago bears with I believe the last name Tate got him in early Nov.
I had to go with 11-20%. I am hung and hopefully have a lot of years of hunting ahead of me. While a 180" buck sounds crazy, this past rifle season my buddy set up in the big woods of PA and shot a 159-6/8" gross 8 point, which is now the 6th largest buck ever taken in that county. If that buck was a 10 pt he would have been pushing that 180" mark.
I'm going with 20% - 25%, for the rest of my life. I figure I have .5% of a chance each year, for 45 more years.
I'd say 81-99% if I want it bad enough...and that would be the same for anyone. They are out there to be had at the top notch properties if that's your wish...obviously most do not want to fork out $4000+ per year plus travel for that opportunity - nor will I. I have seen them and fortunate enough to live in a area that holds them annually...again, how bad I want one is another question. With 4 kids coming up in the ranks, they will become my focus during hunting time, and "my-time" will slowly start being put into "Out-West" hunts as that is much more exhilarating than sitting in a tree stand. The exciting part is that it's highly likely that one is dropped this year during the BH.com deer contest...WHO WILL IT BE?
2%... only because if one ever existed in my area, I have the determination and motivation to do whatever possible to find him, hunt him with everything I have and kill him. Realistically.... 130"- 140" is a monumental task around here. I put everything I have into a hunting season. But you simply cant kill what isn't there. Hats off to anyone that has accomplished that (no matter where you live)
