I read two different articles today that are calling for the Rutting Moon to fall on 11/21 which is quite a bit later than normal. 1. What % does the "rutting moon" actually have on the rut? 2. Normally around here the rut falls at approximately the 1st two weeks of November, do you think it will run as usual? Let's keep this opinionated but friendly.
I'm not really sure. If I remember correctly, the 2010 rutting moon is later than at any time in Alsheimer's studies, so I'm curious if the rut is as dependant on the moon phase as he preaches. In years past, my resident buck activities really picked up (according to my trail cams) between 10/30 and 11/10 no matter what the predictions were. After 11/10 it's really a crap shoot, some years I get a good buck on camera, and other years I usually get nothing after 11/10. For several years in a row I've taken off the second full week in November......but this year I'm taking off 10/30 to 11/7.
It'll be interesting for sure. If there is any year to prove the theory right or wrong, this one would be it. The second week of November always seems dicey to me. Year in and year out, the most activity that I see is in that first week.
I read an article a few yrs ago about a guy that did a study on deer fenced in a large area and on deer in the wild. he concluded that there definitely is a correlation with the 2nd full moon in autumn. Both sets of deer acted that same way with the rut when that 2nd moon came about, hence the reason why the rut changes time yr to yr. He studied them for a couple of yrs. The interesting thing is that both the penned deer and the "wild" deer acted exactly the same way.
I've watched Alsheimers predictions for a few years now and he's usually spot on. It's going to be a year that we really have to work at it to be sucessful.
I get the most trail cam pics and see the most buck activity the last week of Oct and the first week of Nov in my area of SE Pa. Every year.
Sean, you can get on archery spots without the gun hunters. One thing I have noticed where I hunt, the best time to be in the woods is from around Halloween to November 10th or so, regardless of the moon. That being said, I have been taking increasingly less stock in the rut in regards to what it can do for me, but rather I am taking stock in what I can do in terms of seeking out and killing bucks regardless of the time of year. I do not want to rely on something that may or may not bring a buck towards me. Some years I do not experience any chasing behavior at all. In fact, 2 out of the last 3 years I have not seen one instance of chasing.
Exactly! Last year I didn't see a single buck chasing a doe and I was in the woods during prime time. I did see a few bucks "cruising" though. Oh, the state land I hunt is archery only.
Early, I did not see one single instance of a buck chasing last year either, and I hunted many days, some being all day hunts during primetime. ZIP.
Usually when Charlie Alsheimer says something I write it down. Having said that, this year is going to be interesting if he knows as much as I think he knows.
I don't think it's really gonna matter this season due to the crops getting out early. Around me when the crops usually get harvested is when activity kicks up. I think if the crops continue to come out early without any obstacles like weather, then the deer are gonna get a good swift kick in their asses and it will be on like donkey kong! I like hunting hard last week of october through veterans day weekend, whenever I can get out.
So do I, but this is simply b/c my cameras are on scrapes. Usually after those first few days of Nov the bucks pretty much stop hitting the scrapes as they're usually on hot does by then. By far I get the best/most buck pics in daylight at scrapes during that last week of October and first few days of Nov. I think overall deer activity continues to increase into November, we're just not seeing it on our cameras because they're in the wrong spots. As for the moon, while I do put some stock in what Charlie says I don't base my hunts entirely around it. My biggest thing is not hunting too hard on or near a full moon. I've never, ever, had much success or seen many deer during daylight on a full moon. Fortunately the full moon falls during this year's gun season here in IL, so maybe a few more bucks will make it through to next year. :D
Anyone who has ever read my ramblings on the moon knows I enjoy the topic, I also have seen enough to know the rut is subject to so many variables pinning down a date is a crap shoot. That being said I love D&DH and have a ton of respect for CA and his rut predictions/research but it seems they rarely fit where I hunt. If you get a chance look at the map for this years rut predictions and the correlating rut phase graph, guesstimates at best with an imaginary line about even with VA seperating the "northern" rut and "southern" rut. I can tell you for sure if I wait til the late Nov. / Dec. for rut activity in all of the areas I hunt I have missed the boat and gun season is in full effect by the 2nd week of Nov and that kind of pressure can cool down the hottest rut. The rutting moon is just a name, equally if not more important are the new moons that fall on Oct 7 and Nov 6. These moons are preceded and followed by extremely dark nights with little to no moonlight, furthermore the moon rises and sets during the day a lot of the time around new moons which means 0 light at night The darkness or lack of any light stimulus triggers increased melatonin output from the deers pineal gland, melatonin is what is believed to stimulate the reproductive systems of both bucks and does causing a significant spike in testosterone and estrogen levels. So if you figure 28-30 days(about how long a does heat cycle is) from about Oct 5-12(dark nights around new moon) you get approx Nov. 3-10. All rough guesses because it will vary from doe to doe and other variables come into play ie hunting pressure, weather, etc. But I'll be in the woods as much as possible from the week prior to Halloween through gun season in VA(Nov.13). One more fun fact to know and tell is the fact that if you look back to 2002(lunar cycle=8 year repeating cycle) the moon phases are almost identical to 2010(within 1-2 days). Lunar Rut Predictions came out in the October 2002 issue of Deer and Deer Hunting the title line read, 2002 Lunar Forecast: The Worst Rut Ever? So if you have any field notes from 2002 or rut predictions/results that info could be useful. Moon Phases __________Oct 2002 _____________________________Oct 2010 New moon ______________Oct. 6_______________________________Oct. 7 First quarter _____________Oct. 13______________________________Oct. 14 Full____________________Oct. 22______________________________Oct. 23 Third quarter_____________Oct. 29______________________________Oct. 30 Moon Phases__________Nov. 2002 ______________________________Nov.2010 New moon______________Nov 4_________________________________Nov. 6 First quarter_____________Nov 11________________________________Nov. 13 Full___________________ Nov 19________________________________ Nov. 21 Third quarter____________ Nov 27________________________________Nov. 28
I'm pretty sure I know what you mean, here, NEW. But, it's a little unclear. You're saying they come into heat every 28-30 days.......and that they're IN heat for less than a couple days at a time. Right?
Another thing that has always irked me about the rutting moon is this, if it is the second full moon of autumn and you are seeing rutting activity knowing what we know about a does breeding cycle the does cycle was triggered long before she actually comes into heat(which is usually the last week of her breeding cycle). And during that heat part of her cycle she is generally only receptive to being bred the last 1-2 days. So even if you are seeing rutting activity around that second full moon it was likely triggered long before that.
From what I have read about a does breeding cycle it is 28-30(approx) days long, the last few days or so of that cycle is when she is actually in "heat/estrous"(and likely being chased/bird dogged by bucks) and the last 1-2 days of the "heat/estrous" part of her cycle is when she is generally bred. If her breeding is unsuccessful she will cycle again.
