I don't think I've ever seen point creep specifically addressed on this forum. Being from the Midwest and only having hunted OTC hunts out west, I only recently heard of it. Given that the average age of hunters is increasing at a pretty steep rate (and the conditioning/physical ability limitations that come with that; many states' points systems have turned into a Ponzi scheme at this point. Has anyone heard of or seen an actual policy that fairly addresses this trend? What state and specifics, please. I would think some sort of combination of consecutive years points purchasing/age. While age is slightly arbitrary it is at least a base that most people can predict on a timeline if not life situations.
Check out the hunt elk every year series on the Elk Talk podcast by Corey Jacobsen and Randy Newberg. They do a state-by-state breakdown and cover this pretty well. My take away has been this: build points now, expect to wait 8-12 years to draw a "glory tag." Take OTC and low point tags to build experience as often as possible. I think hunting out west and drawing tags will be getting easier over the next decade as the boomers age out and demands decrease.
Basically, everyone who applies in a state with a point system, and does not draw, gains a point. So, everyone who didn't draw this year has an extra point next year. Sounds good if you are the only person that gets the extra point, except, everyone gets the extra point. So a tag that was drawn in a particular unit for 4 points in 2018 might require 5 points or more in 2019. Because everyone who didn't draw, received an extra point to be used in the future. So thinking you can draw a unit with 4 points in 2019 simply because people were drawing the tag with 4 points in 2018 isn't accurate. Because, all those people who applied in 2018 with 4 points and didn't draw due to a limited number of tags, will be applying in 2019 with 5 points. If you are the guy who applied in 2018 with 3 points, and didn't draw a tag that people were getting with 4 points, does not guarantee that you will draw that tag in 2019 with 4 points. Thus, point creep. Each year, hard to draw tags get harder to draw because everyone who applied the previous year and didn't draw, is applying again with more points, driving the point requirement to draw higher and higher each year. It is worse in states that square the points.
It happen to me in the past 8 years. I was applying for Colorado for elk and mule deer archery. My buddy always pulled tags in 3-4 years. When I hit 4 years, I still wasn't getting a tag. It ended up taking 6 years for the elk and 7 for the mule deer. My buddy got lucky and actually pulled 2 elk tags in that time frame before I ever pulled my first one. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Yeah, it's a heck of a problem for sure - especially for young or new hunters. Just like anything I think the PrefPoint systems in all these states started out with good intentions but I don't think people really imagined what the 'point creep' would turn into - a nightmare in my eyes. Most States do something different in their draws so they are all a bit different, some are better, some worse. The worst for point creep is Colorado IMO - at least for high end elk units you are seeing some units approach mid to upper 20's in PP's needed to draw. And with them being a true preference point system, as their draw stands right now, there are several tags\units that the vast majority stand ZERO percent chance of ever drawing, ever... IMO - how is that fair to a kid that is just starting to hunt - for them to have essentially no chance to hunt one of the better units - sucks... As a real world example of point creep, take unit 7 in Wyoming - OK unit, not the best, not the worst... In 2011 if you applied with 5 points you stood a 51% chance of drawing in the Regular Pref Point Draw. In 2019, if you applied with 10 points, you stood a 47% of drawing... That's point creep :-) Everyone is going to have their own opinion but I think the best choice over time is a true random draw, every year, no PP's - like NM. Next best is a PP system where you throw the name in hat how ever many PP's you have. Beyond that you can do something like NV where they square PP's which still doesn't 100% rule out new hunters but gives those applying year after year an exponential chance of drawing.... There are obvious variations of them too - like WY that gives X % to the highest and then X % goes into a random draw... Better than CO but still leads to significant creep... One challenge with PP systems is that anytime changes are made - people scream pretty loud so once you start down the road, it can be hard to make a U turn or take a Y in the road...
maybe someone could come up with some way to do a points "flush" from the system. Like every 7-10 years or so 1 season has a high-level point minimum where you can't get a draw unless you have a minimum number of points. There has to be someone smart enough to come up with an algorithm tailored to each states' numbers which could figure it out on a state by state basis. Might not get everyone a chance but somethings gotta be better than putting in for a dream tag for 25 years and coming up with nothing.
Some states, like Utah and New Mexico, place people in a "penalty box." After drawing certain high demand tags, there is a wait period of several years before a person can apply for the tag again, regardless of whether or not the tag gets filled. I think it is a good idea for high-point tags provided that there are OTC options available so people can keep hunting in the off years if they like.
I like that. I don't think there is a one-state-fits-all point system, but I think some sort of version of the penalty box+algorithm/point purge system could work for most. I'm less concerned about opportunities for youth/young hunters as I am with 30+ year old hunters. As hunters age there will be less pressure on points system. I would just like to see hunters who have been putting in for 10 years or whatever have a real shot at getting drawn before they end up too busted up to go on said dream hunt.
Pretty disheartening when you think about it. I have the physical ability to go on just about any hunt right now but wont be able to draw premo units until i'm 50 and who knows what shape I will be in. But I guess I would rather hunt an okay unit every 3 years with otc in between but who knows if point creep will happen in the off years in my okay units. Guess we will leave that up to Eastman's and the Newbergs of the hunting world
maybe states like Colorado (high point zones) could do a 3-5 year point purge where only people with XX number of points can draw in those zones. Bar new applicants from applying in those zones for a few years; but those who have points keep them until after the purge when they can again start accruing/drawing.
I personally like this idea, but I can't imagine the outrage it would cause. I'm not sure how a state could extricate itself from a system without pissing off a large segment of their population.
as long as nobody loses the points they have paid for shouldn't be too much kvetching. I'd take a 3-5 year "pause" if I knew it exponentially increased my chances to draw after the freeze was up.
I think it will get a lot easier in the next 8 to 10 years. Most of those boomers will quit applying as they get to old. I will be 36 in a few months. I am starting to build points this year but do not plan on cashing them in for at least 3 to 4 years on mid-level quality units. I am more interested in hunting as often as I can than in hunting the best units. Those units will be easier to draw as the boomers age out.
One of the challenges is that in a lot of cases the demand for the hunts is many many times greater than the amount of tags - especially for NR tags. A lot of the better units in NV, NM, AZ, CO, etc only have 2,3,5,10, 15 NR tags total a year but yet hundreds or thousands of people applying.... For example, in 2018 Unit 31 in Wyoming (elk) had 561 people apply as 1st choice non-residents. Between all the draw options (PP Reg, PP Spec, Rand Reg, Rand Spec) they gave out 8 total tags... So using redneck math, even if they cut things off right there and didn't let anyone new apply, a flush of everyone in the system going for unit 31 tags at 8 tags per year would take 70.125 years.... But you guys are right - there HAS to be a better way. Definitely think there are things we could cherry pick from different states that work - I still like the no PP's but maybe you don't allow people to draw on their 1st year, call that being "vested" in a tag/species and then maybe a 3 year waiting period to draw again if you do draw a tag like was mentioned above. I'd also like to see some states introduce options to buy back PP's from people - least as a one time option for people before changes are made... I'm not sure how many people would take advantage of that but it could lessen the heartbreak (and maybe avoid lawsuits) for those with tons of points if a system is changed - how you fund it could be a challenge but think we could add a "charge" to apply for a year or two and then use that to buy back old PP's... Really I think most of us just want a CHANCE to be able to draw & hunt some of these units in our lifetime, which in many situations/states isn't happening under the current draws and rules....
100% agree. I would rather go chase 250-300" bulls around every year in units that have good populations, i'm in it for the experience while others are after 400" or whatever. Nothing wrong/right with one over the other, just different end goals
Utah has point creep and a waiting period after pulling a tag. It also takes 8-22+ points to draw. So, in effect for geezers like me, if I draw a tag, it will likely be a once in a lifetime deal. I also can only put in for one 'limited entry' (LE) species each year. (Buck pronghorn, buck deer, or bull elk). So if you want to hunt a big LE mule deer, you can't also apply for elk. Moose, mountain goats, desert bighorn, RM bighorn and bison are once in a lifetime and you can only apply for one species per year. The problem is just too many hunters and not enough animals. We do have some 'general branch antlered bull' units and lots of 'general buck deer units' so it's not like you can't ever hunt but I sure wish I could pull a LE bull elk tag for my hometown unit before I'm 60. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Point creep is terrible in some states. Hopefully the worst offenders start making changes that produce systems that are viable long term. This shoudlnt be a surprise. We been talking to about it for years.
