Just looking over some stuff here. Planning.
Sick. I know.
As a matter of background, I read this brief passage authored by Chuck Alsheimer, who I consider to be one of the planet's top authorities on whitetail behavior.
Read this article. It will change your life. http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/moon.html
Because I know you lazy schmucks didn't read it, I'll tell you what it said: The crux of the article is that the rutting moon arrives with the second full moon after the autumnal equinox. According to Chuck, the best 8 days to be in the woods are the 4 days before and after the Rutting moon arrives. This is widely known as the "seeking phase."
Tired of waiting for the right time?
Now, brace yourself, as the Undisputed King takes this information and uses it to help put yet another piece in the 2009 puzzle. These are the moments that define us . . . well . . . Me . . . as a great American Whitetail Hero. Clearly, this is your chance to ride the King's coattails to deerhunting fame, and get an inside look at one of American Bowhunting's greatest minds.
Using 2007 as a guide, the dates fell as follows:
Autumnal Equinox: 9/23/07
First Full Moon: 9/26/07
Second Full Moon: 10/26/07
By his calculation, in 2007, the prime time to arrow a buck would have been between 10/22 and 10/30.
Sounds good, right?
Not so fast.
A 2007 site-wide poll on "another site" yielded inconsistent results - as it turns out that this timeframe was not the best time, statistically. With 133 recorded buck harvests, we discovered that 35% of the bucks harvested fell between 11/1 and 11/10, while only 18% died between 10/21 and 10/31. Weird. People just don't shoot that many deer in late October. Fact.
Read it and weep.
So by Alsheimer's lunar calendar, the 2008 seek phase was slated to come much later:
Autumnal Equinox: 9/22/08
First Full Moon: 10/14/08
Rutting Moon: 11/13/08
If you go +/- 4 days on the rutting moon, Chuck tells us that the big boys will be lookin' to get their collective swerve-on between 11/9 and 11/17/08.
I arrowed my second buck on 11/17. Go figure.
Now, for the meat and potatoes:
Autumnal Equinox: 9/22/09
First Full Moon: 10/4/09
Rutting Moon: Monday, November 2, 2009
+/- 4 days: October 29 - November 6, 2009
Mark it down. Schedule the birth of your children around it. Etch it in stone.
The King has spoken.
I tip my cap to the guys who caught my error - reversing the new/full moons. I need to start paying more attention to the important details!
Team 22 - The Fuzzy Wuzzy Bunnies
I struggle with belief in moon-phase theory, altogether. But I find your posts fascinating, Fran. Keep up the good work!
'09 NE GTG 100 Yard Shot Champ
I think the majority of bucks get killed when the majority of guys are in the woods looking for them........not many dudes are sitting on the couch in the first week of Nov.
This is kinda like guessing the weight of the fat chicks at the fair........plus or minus enough tonage and your bound to catch most of them.........divide by 20 and and you'll have a good +/- on the number of teeth she has left.
Not that I don't love the King.........and Chuck
Originally Posted by Justin
I'll be at deer camp from late Friday Nov. 6th until Sunday the 15th. I've had that vacation time planned for a couple of months now. That is subject to change contingent upon my early season success.
Fran it is great to see another well thought out, intelligent, and meaningful post from the throne room!
Hoyt Spyder Turbo
You should write a (comic) book. Do you ever hunt Western MD?
I think you should be in the woods anytime you can get away from the wife/kids/job/school/girlfriend between 25 Oct and Thanksgiving every year. At some point, local rut variations (weather, local timing, pressure) and life's other factors become more predominant than the natural ones for me.
Very true Atlas. Deer don't start hitting the ground until the bowhunters really start pounding it.Originally Posted by atlasman
...speaking of pounding it - check out the funnel cake stands. Lots of Fatties gravitate toward those areas. But, just like whitetails, sometimes the best vantage points aren't necessarily in the feed sites themselves, but the travel corridors between destinations (i.e. trails between restrooms and funnel cake vendors, transition lines between vendor rows, etc...) It really is a science. Choose your setups wisely.
Team 22 - The Fuzzy Wuzzy Bunnies
October 4 and November 2 are the full moon dates for this fall. The dates you listed are the new moons. Charles' predictions would be for prime seeking/chasing to be two weeks earlier than you have listed then.
2011 Mathews Z7 Mag
2008 Mathews Switchback 2
Originally Posted by atlasman
Correct. This year the peak breeding is supposed to be between October 29 and November 6.Originally Posted by Sooner
Now, knowing The King messed up, how should I vote? :d
NW Ontario Bear Hunting and Fishing
Cygnet Lake Camp
vote for pedro
lmao...Originally Posted by dave37
You are not sick Quik, I am a Moon Theory junkie and waste tons of time studying moon phases, rise/set times, date comparisons between years, etc. I then make extremely long-winded posts on the topic that are largely ignored due to the previously mentioned long-windedness(this one will be no different). I can't help it, but luckily now I have a large collection of posts from multiple forums I save so I can just cut and paste them that way I don't feel like I wasted too much time typing a post that goes unread.
This is my moon theory(which focuses on the 1st new moon of Autumn) from a recent thread from this site(I don't buy into the rutting moon/2nd full moon theory) but our dates are very close:
For the past few seasons I have been taking guesses about the rut in my area based on the first New Moon in the Autumn Equinox (as opposed to the 2nd full moon). The last couple of seasons have been pretty good and I am tweaking the way I view things a touch (except for the weather, that is never cooperative). So here is my stab for this year based on my extremely scientific method.
I feel like the dates are always pretty close each year (probably because it's one big cycle) but this year for example is quite different than last year. The first new moon of autumn in 2009 is Oct 18 where as last year it was Sept 29. The first full moon in 2009 is Oct 4 as compared to Oct 14 for 2008, second full moon this year Nov. 2 and last year was Nov 13. These changes in the lunar cycle are rather small in the big scheme of things but I believe they wil certainly effect the phase of the rut this year even if only by 7-14 days(that's a pretty big window).
I am thinking that action will occur slightly later this year and there is a method to my madness.
That brings me to my New Moon theory(rise/set times are very important as well) I mentioned briefly earlier. The first new moon of autumn this season will be Oct 18, so from Oct. 14 to Oct 21 there is almost no sliver of moon the whole week based on the Moon Phase, couple that with the Rise/Set times which shows the moon will be up during the day (for the most part) that entire week (Oct 14 Moon Rise=03:06 am and Set= 4:18 pm / Oct 21 Moon Rise 10:58 am and Set= 8:12 pm) and the days in between are similiar, those two sets of circumstances combined = a complete week of blacked out nights.
The week of dark nights will ensure increased/steady melatonin output from the pineal gland(which boosts hormones linked to reproductive activity in both bucks and does). I think mid October when all this happens the bucks will start showing testosterone boosted behavior and does will start their breeding cycle which lasts 30 days (the last 7 of which she is usually in heat and the last 1-2 does of that seven is when they ususally are receptive to breeding). 30 days broke down into seeking=first 20-23 days(approx), chasing=5-7 days, breeding last couple of days.
That week of dark nights is Oct 14 thru Oct 21 (New Moon is the 18th) so,
30 days from Oct 14 is Nov 13, 30 days from Oct 21 is Nov. 20. So Nov. 13-20 would represent the end (approx) of the cycle based on my theory.
This is the part I think is tricky, does don't necessarily start the same day (think women) so while certain family groups of does may have similiar biological clocks others may be a couple of days different, younger does may come in later than older does early or vice versa. First year does may come in even later and if a doe doesn't get pregnant her first cycle she can come in again later. I think those are some of the reasons we always get conflicting rut reports during hunting season(that and regional differences).
After looking at the info this morning I think I'll shoot for about Nov. 9-18, depending on the weather of course.
And below is some furter explanation of my theory from a different thread, so if it seems out of context it is because it was a reply to some questions.
I understand photoperiod and I understand the point your making however I think I am not g
--Shut up and hunt--
--Quit your grinnin and get to skinnin--
I follow the moon theory, it'd be nice if a guy could predict the rut, but I'm skeptical. It's easy for Charles' theory to be correct when the rutting moon just happens to coincide with the first week of November b/c that's when the seeking/chasing phase normally occurs. The true test was last year when he said the bulk of the chasing wouldn't even start until middle of November. I can only speak for my area, but he missed it. Mature bucks were chasing hard during daylight hours from the end of October thru the first week of November then it tapered off noticeably. I'm sure it varies, but that was what my buddies and I observed.
2011 Mathews Z7 Mag
2008 Mathews Switchback 2
I have been a major believer in this theory for years. I have in the past and will continue in the future to plan my vacation time around this.
Last year was a great example, which proves just how on target this theory is. As the King stated, the dates were pushed back much later in 2008 than in other years. Here in Illinois, I had buddies complaining about not seeing any chasing, not seeing any sign that the rut was “on”. I kept telling them that the “norm” (first of Nov) was too early this year and to wait for just a few weeks. I was called crazy when I scheduled my vacation last year for 15 Nov – 23 Nov instead of the traditional first 7 days of Nov.
I arrowed my best 2008 buck on 16 Nov, second day of a week long hunt. I invited two buddies up to hunt with me that had been complaining about lack of buck sightings. I told them that they were complaining too early and promised them a show. A show they got as the three of us arrowed 3 bucks over 140”, 1 was over 160” and I cannot even begin to tell you how many “shooter” bucks were seen from the stand between the three of us. It was without a doubt one of the best weeks of hunting I have had.
Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag. Not all secrets should be shared!!!!!
North American Outfitters - Highland Illinois
Hoyt Staff Shooter
"If you are not working to protect hunting, then you are working to destroy it". -Fred Bear
I prefer hunting during a new moon, or the few days after it.
Sometimes, my own mind boggles itself.